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ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN THE UNITED STATES A NEW MODEL WITH FORECASTS TO 2030

By 2017-03-08 No Comments
Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology (CET) Technical Brief
Authors: Thomas A. Becker, Ikhlaq Sidhu, Burghardt Tenderich

This paper was commissioned by the Center for Entrepreneurship and Technology at the University of California, Berkeley. It estimates the rate of market adoption of electric vehicles in the United States through 2030 and analyzes the impact of electric car deployment on the trade balance, business investment, employment, health care costs, and greenhouse gas emissions. The market adoption analysis uses a network externalities model that accounts for the purchase price and operating costs of electric vehicles using switchable batteries and charging networks ├ľnanced by pay-per-mile contracts.

The market penetration rate of electric cars and the accompanying estimates of macro-economic impacts are a function of world oil prices and the relative purchase price of drivetrains. This paper forecasts three electric vehicle adoption scenarios based on two oil price scenarios and possible purchase price incentives for electric cars.

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